| Sumario: |
The bulk of studies which attempt to quantify the effects of Brexit
focus on trade issues; however, very few of them have analysed
migration. In this paper, we analyse the impact of several
migration policies on GDP, GDP per capita, wages, national
income and sectoral production in the UK, using what is
technically called a general equilibrium analysis. We also analyse
the impact at the macroeconomic level on the EU. We find that
migration has the potential of deeply affecting economic activity
in the UK. The more restrictive immigration policies are, the
greater the losses in terms of GDP and Welfare. However,
according to the text of the ‘joint agreement’ reached by the UK
and EU on December 8 (2017), very restrictive policies seem to be
ruled out. Nevertheless, after the ‘Windrush scandal’ some doubts
about the final implementation of future UK migration policies
remain. We also analyse mild migration policies which would only
reduce the number of migrants received. Reductions in the
number of EU immigrants between 42,000 and 87,000 per year
would lead to foregone GDP increases in the UK between 0.08%
and 0.17%. This impact should be considered cumulative across
years in which the net inflows are reduced, so that negative
effects for GDP and welfare can be substantial if the reduction in
workers takes place during many years in a row. The UK currently
has easy access to a large pool of workers coming from other EU
member states, and UK managers have expressed that it is hard
to replace EU talent in the short term. This suggests that if the
political imperative for tighter immigration control cannot be
avoided, gradual immigration restrictiveness will be less harmful
for the UK’s economy and should be accompanied by additional
efforts in education and workers’ training.
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