Sumario: |
The Central American mid-summer drought (MSD) is the decline of precipitation
during the middle of the wet season (July and August) over Central America and
southern Mexico. It affects agriculture and favours the initiation of bushfires in
Costa Rica's national parks, particularly during El Niño years. The MSD is a
seasonal phenomenon that varies in intensity and timing inter-annually. The
Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been shown to influence Costa Rican rainfall
on intra-seasonal time scales, and therefore may be important to the MSD. In this
study we use rainfall data from seven stations in Costa Rica to analyse the MJO's
influence on the timing of the onset and end of the MSD. We find that the MSD is
more likely to start and end in MJO Phases 1 and 8, respectively. Our findings
indicate enhanced MSD predictability on intra-seasonal time scales, which could
be beneficial to agricultural planning in Costa Rica
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