Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)

Background: Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus tran...

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Main Authors: Sabine, E. Hutter, Käsbohrer, Annemarie, Fallas González, Silvia Lucía, León, Bernal, Brugger, Katharina, Baldi, Mario, Romero-Vega, L. Mario, Gao, Yan, Chaves, Luis Fernando
Format: Artículo
Language: Inglés
Published: BMC Veterinary Research 2022
Subjects:
Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/11056/23582
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12917-018-1588-8
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spelling RepoUNACR235822022-07-19T16:32:55Z Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016) Sabine, E. Hutter Käsbohrer, Annemarie Fallas González, Silvia Lucía León, Bernal Brugger, Katharina Baldi, Mario Romero-Vega, L. Mario Gao, Yan Chaves, Luis Fernando COSTA RICA GANADO BOVINO CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO CLIMATE CHANGE VIRUS BOVINE RABIA RABIE Background: Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus transmission in cattle is primarily associated with Desmodus rotundus, the common vampire bat. This study analyses the association of weather fluctuations and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the occurrence and magnitude, in terms of associated mortality, of cattle rabies outbreaks. Data from the 100 cattle rabies outbreaks recorded between 1985 and 2016 in Costa Rica were analyzed. Periodograms for time series of rabies outbreaks and the El Niño 4 index were estimated. Seasonality was studied using a seasonal boxplot. The association between epidemiological and climatic time series was studied via cross wavelet coherence analysis. Retrospective space-time scan cluster analyses were also performed. Finally, seasonal autoregressive time series models were fitted to study linear associations between monthly number of outbreaks, monthly mortality rates and the El Niño 4 index, temperature, and rainfall. Results: Large rabies mortality occurred towards the Atlantic basin of the country. Outbreak occurrence and size were not directly associated with ENSO, but were sensitive to weather variables impacted by ENSO. Both, ENSO phases and rabies outbreaks, showed a similar 5 year period in their oscillations. Cattle rabies mortality and outbreak occurrence increased with temperature, whereas outbreak occurrence decreased with rainfall. These results suggest that special weather conditions might favor the occurrence of cattle rabies outbreaks. Conclusions: Further efforts are necessary to articulate the mechanisms underpinning the association between weather changes and cattle rabies outbreaks. One hypothesis is that exacerbation of cattle rabies outbreaks might be mediated by impacts of weather conditions on common vampire bat movement and access to food resources on its natural habitats. Further eco-epidemiological field studies could help to understand rabies virus transmission ecology, and to propose sound interventions to control this major veterinary public health problem. Antecedentes: La rabia es una importante enfermedad zoonótica que afecta a los seres humanos y a los mamíferos domésticos y salvajes. El ganado es el animal doméstico más importante afectado por el virus de la rabia en el Nuevo Mundo, lo que provoca la muerte de miles de reses al año y provocan grandes pérdidas económicas. En el Nuevo Mundo, la transmisión del virus en el ganado se asocia principalmente a con el Desmodus rotundus, el murciélago vampiro común. Este estudio analiza la asociación de las fluctuaciones meteorológicas y El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENSO), con la aparición y la magnitud, en términos de mortalidad asociada, de brotes de rabia en el ganado. Se analizaron los datos de los 100 brotes de rabia bovina registrados entre 1985 y 2016 en Costa Rica se analizaron los datos de los 100 brotes de rabia bovina registrados entre 1985 y 2016 en Costa Rica. Se estimaron los periodogramas de las series temporales de los brotes de rabia y el índice de El Niño 4. Se estudió la estacionalidad mediante un boxplot estacional. La asociación entre las series temporales epidemiológicas y climáticas se estudió mediante un análisis de coherencia de ondículas cruzadas. También se realizaron análisis de conglomerados de barrido espacio-temporal retrospectivo de clusters espacio-temporales retrospectivos. Por último, se ajustaron modelos de series temporales autorregresivas estacionales para estudiar las asociaciones lineales entre número mensual de brotes, las tasas mensuales de mortalidad y el índice de El Niño 4, la temperatura y las precipitaciones. Resultados: La mayor mortalidad por rabia se produjo hacia la cuenca atlántica del país. La ocurrencia y el tamaño de los brotes no se asociaron directamente con el ENSO, pero fueron sensibles a las variables meteorológicas afectadas por el ENSO. Tanto las fases del ENSO y los brotes de rabia, mostraron un período de 5 años similar en sus oscilaciones. La mortalidad por rabia del ganado y la aparición de brotes aumentaron con la temperatura, mientras que la aparición de brotes disminuyó con las precipitaciones. Estos resultados sugieren que unas condiciones meteorológicas especiales podrían favorecer la aparición de brotes de rabia bovina. Conclusiones: Es necesario realizar más esfuerzos para articular los mecanismos que subyacen a la asociación entre los cambios meteorológicos y los brotes de rabia bovina. Una hipótesis es que la exacerbación de los brotes de rabia bovina podría estar mediada por el impacto de las condiciones meteorológicas en los movimientos del murciélago vampiro común y el acceso a los recursos alimenticios en sus hábitats naturales. Otros estudios eco-epidemiológicos de campo podrían ayudar a entender la transmisión del virus de la rabia y a proponer intervenciones adecuadas para controlar este importante problema de salud pública veterinaria. Universidad Nacional, Costa Rica Escuela de Medicina Veterinaria 2022-07-19T15:33:21Z 2022-07-19T15:33:21Z 2018-09-17 http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_6501 http://hdl.handle.net/11056/23582 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12917-018-1588-8 eng Acceso abierto http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ application/pdf BMC Veterinary Research BMC Veterinary Research 14:285, 2018
institution Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica
collection Repositorio UNA-Costa Rica
language Inglés
topic COSTA RICA
GANADO BOVINO
CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
CLIMATE CHANGE
VIRUS
BOVINE
RABIA
RABIE
spellingShingle COSTA RICA
GANADO BOVINO
CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO
CLIMATE CHANGE
VIRUS
BOVINE
RABIA
RABIE
Sabine, E. Hutter
Käsbohrer, Annemarie
Fallas González, Silvia Lucía
León, Bernal
Brugger, Katharina
Baldi, Mario
Romero-Vega, L. Mario
Gao, Yan
Chaves, Luis Fernando
Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
description Background: Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus transmission in cattle is primarily associated with Desmodus rotundus, the common vampire bat. This study analyses the association of weather fluctuations and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the occurrence and magnitude, in terms of associated mortality, of cattle rabies outbreaks. Data from the 100 cattle rabies outbreaks recorded between 1985 and 2016 in Costa Rica were analyzed. Periodograms for time series of rabies outbreaks and the El Niño 4 index were estimated. Seasonality was studied using a seasonal boxplot. The association between epidemiological and climatic time series was studied via cross wavelet coherence analysis. Retrospective space-time scan cluster analyses were also performed. Finally, seasonal autoregressive time series models were fitted to study linear associations between monthly number of outbreaks, monthly mortality rates and the El Niño 4 index, temperature, and rainfall. Results: Large rabies mortality occurred towards the Atlantic basin of the country. Outbreak occurrence and size were not directly associated with ENSO, but were sensitive to weather variables impacted by ENSO. Both, ENSO phases and rabies outbreaks, showed a similar 5 year period in their oscillations. Cattle rabies mortality and outbreak occurrence increased with temperature, whereas outbreak occurrence decreased with rainfall. These results suggest that special weather conditions might favor the occurrence of cattle rabies outbreaks. Conclusions: Further efforts are necessary to articulate the mechanisms underpinning the association between weather changes and cattle rabies outbreaks. One hypothesis is that exacerbation of cattle rabies outbreaks might be mediated by impacts of weather conditions on common vampire bat movement and access to food resources on its natural habitats. Further eco-epidemiological field studies could help to understand rabies virus transmission ecology, and to propose sound interventions to control this major veterinary public health problem.
format Artículo
author Sabine, E. Hutter
Käsbohrer, Annemarie
Fallas González, Silvia Lucía
León, Bernal
Brugger, Katharina
Baldi, Mario
Romero-Vega, L. Mario
Gao, Yan
Chaves, Luis Fernando
author_sort Sabine, E. Hutter
title Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title_short Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title_full Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title_fullStr Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title_full_unstemmed Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
title_sort assessing changing weather and the el niño southern oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in costa rica (1985–2016)
publisher BMC Veterinary Research
publishDate 2022
url http://hdl.handle.net/11056/23582
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12917-018-1588-8
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score 12.24763