Assessing changing weather and the El Niño Southern Oscillation impacts on cattle rabies outbreaks and mortality in Costa Rica (1985–2016)
Background: Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus tran...
Autores Principales: | Sabine, E. Hutter, Käsbohrer, Annemarie, Fallas González, Silvia Lucía, León, Bernal, Brugger, Katharina, Baldi, Mario, Romero-Vega, L. Mario, Gao, Yan, Chaves, Luis Fernando |
---|---|
Formato: | Artículo |
Idioma: | Inglés |
Publicado: |
BMC Veterinary Research
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: |
http://hdl.handle.net/11056/23582 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12917-018-1588-8 |
Sumario: |
Background: Rabies is a major zoonotic disease affecting humans, domestic and wildlife mammals. Cattle are the
most important domestic animals impacted by rabies virus in the New World, leading to thousands of cattle deaths
per year and eliciting large economic losses. In the New World, virus transmission in cattle is primarily associated
with Desmodus rotundus, the common vampire bat. This study analyses the association of weather fluctuations and
the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the occurrence and magnitude, in terms of associated mortality, of
cattle rabies outbreaks. Data from the 100 cattle rabies outbreaks recorded between 1985 and 2016 in Costa Rica
were analyzed. Periodograms for time series of rabies outbreaks and the El Niño 4 index were estimated.
Seasonality was studied using a seasonal boxplot. The association between epidemiological and climatic time series
was studied via cross wavelet coherence analysis. Retrospective space-time scan cluster analyses were also
performed. Finally, seasonal autoregressive time series models were fitted to study linear associations between
monthly number of outbreaks, monthly mortality rates and the El Niño 4 index, temperature, and rainfall.
Results: Large rabies mortality occurred towards the Atlantic basin of the country. Outbreak occurrence and size
were not directly associated with ENSO, but were sensitive to weather variables impacted by ENSO. Both, ENSO
phases and rabies outbreaks, showed a similar 5 year period in their oscillations. Cattle rabies mortality and
outbreak occurrence increased with temperature, whereas outbreak occurrence decreased with rainfall. These
results suggest that special weather conditions might favor the occurrence of cattle rabies outbreaks.
Conclusions: Further efforts are necessary to articulate the mechanisms underpinning the association between
weather changes and cattle rabies outbreaks. One hypothesis is that exacerbation of cattle rabies outbreaks might
be mediated by impacts of weather conditions on common vampire bat movement and access to food resources
on its natural habitats. Further eco-epidemiological field studies could help to understand rabies virus transmission
ecology, and to propose sound interventions to control this major veterinary public health problem. |
---|