Evolution of Contagion by COVID-19 in El Salvador Applying SIR-Dynamic Simulations with the Monte Carlo Method
The COVID-19 pandemic is at the present in full swing in El Salvador and experience in other countries forces us to make drastic public and health policy decisions to contain the disease. This report presents some estimates of the evolution of the disease under the conditions of social distancing...
| Autores Principales: | Hernández, Kevin, Rafael, Gomez-Escoto, Raúl, Henríquez, Arce, Ismael, Andrés, Alexis |
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| Formato: | Otro |
| Idioma: | Español |
| Publicado: |
Universidad de El Salvador
2020
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| Acceso en línea: |
http://covid19.csuca.org/4/ |
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RepoCovid194 |
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| recordtype |
eprints |
| spelling |
RepoCovid1942020-06-01T18:14:27Z http://covid19.csuca.org/4/ Evolution of Contagion by COVID-19 in El Salvador Applying SIR-Dynamic Simulations with the Monte Carlo Method Hernández, Kevin Rafael, Gomez-Escoto Raúl, Henríquez Arce, Ismael Andrés, Alexis 616.91 Enfermedades virales The COVID-19 pandemic is at the present in full swing in El Salvador and experience in other countries forces us to make drastic public and health policy decisions to contain the disease. This report presents some estimates of the evolution of the disease under the conditions of social distancing and home quarantine ordered by the authorities. Estimates and projections provide evidence based on SIR-type mathematical models, applying the Monte Carlo method, to establish and evaluate the critical phases of the pandemic and its effects, so that more efficient measures and strategies can be re-evaluated to continue containing the entry into greater critical phases. The time-dependent SIR was used to calculate differents paramenters of pandemic in the country, using official data from March 18 up May 4. We found the recovery rate has a value of ˆα = (0.0658 ± 0.0267)1/t with t measured in days, while the transmision rate is βˆ = (0.108 ± 0.001)1/t, therefore, the basic reproduction number was calculated with the value of Rˆ0 = (3.18 ± 0.21). The time-dependent SIR also was used to calculate the projections for infected cases and recovered cases, however, we analyzed the implementation of the Monte Carlo method in the numerical solution of infected cases. The maximum peak of the contagion is calculated using the solutions for infected cases, with and without applying Monte Carlo method, and it predicts between 1,320 and 1,488 individuals in infected state, and projecting that the time window for the critical period of the epidemic will be between the first and second week of June, while it would be attenuating only in mid-August. The error analysis include the error by the parameters and the prediction error. Universidad de El Salvador 2020-05-11 Other NonPeerReviewed text es cc_by_4 https://covid19.csuca.org/4/1/Evolution%20COVID-19%20in%20El%20Salvador.pdf Hernández, Kevin, Rafael, Gomez-Escoto, Raúl, Henríquez, Arce, Ismael and Andrés, Alexis (2020) Evolution of Contagion by COVID-19 in El Salvador Applying SIR-Dynamic Simulations with the Monte Carlo Method. Universidad de El Salvador. |
| institution |
Consejo Superior Universitario Centroamericano |
| collection |
Repositorio COVID-19 CSUCA |
| language |
Español |
| topic |
616.91 Enfermedades virales |
| spellingShingle |
616.91 Enfermedades virales Hernández, Kevin Rafael, Gomez-Escoto Raúl, Henríquez Arce, Ismael Andrés, Alexis Evolution of Contagion by COVID-19 in El Salvador Applying SIR-Dynamic Simulations with the Monte Carlo Method |
| description |
The COVID-19 pandemic is at the present in full swing in El Salvador and experience in other
countries forces us to make drastic public and health policy decisions to contain the disease. This
report presents some estimates of the evolution of the disease under the conditions of social distancing
and home quarantine ordered by the authorities. Estimates and projections provide evidence based
on SIR-type mathematical models, applying the Monte Carlo method, to establish and evaluate the
critical phases of the pandemic and its effects, so that more efficient measures and strategies can
be re-evaluated to continue containing the entry into greater critical phases. The time-dependent
SIR was used to calculate differents paramenters of pandemic in the country, using official data
from March 18 up May 4. We found the recovery rate has a value of ˆα = (0.0658 ± 0.0267)1/t
with t measured in days, while the transmision rate is βˆ = (0.108 ± 0.001)1/t, therefore, the basic
reproduction number was calculated with the value of Rˆ0 = (3.18 ± 0.21). The time-dependent
SIR also was used to calculate the projections for infected cases and recovered cases, however,
we analyzed the implementation of the Monte Carlo method in the numerical solution of infected
cases. The maximum peak of the contagion is calculated using the solutions for infected cases, with
and without applying Monte Carlo method, and it predicts between 1,320 and 1,488 individuals in
infected state, and projecting that the time window for the critical period of the epidemic will be
between the first and second week of June, while it would be attenuating only in mid-August. The
error analysis include the error by the parameters and the prediction error. |
| format |
Otro |
| author |
Hernández, Kevin Rafael, Gomez-Escoto Raúl, Henríquez Arce, Ismael Andrés, Alexis |
| author_sort |
Hernández, Kevin |
| title |
Evolution of Contagion by COVID-19 in El Salvador Applying SIR-Dynamic Simulations with the Monte Carlo Method |
| title_short |
Evolution of Contagion by COVID-19 in El Salvador Applying SIR-Dynamic Simulations with the Monte Carlo Method |
| title_full |
Evolution of Contagion by COVID-19 in El Salvador Applying SIR-Dynamic Simulations with the Monte Carlo Method |
| title_fullStr |
Evolution of Contagion by COVID-19 in El Salvador Applying SIR-Dynamic Simulations with the Monte Carlo Method |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Evolution of Contagion by COVID-19 in El Salvador Applying SIR-Dynamic Simulations with the Monte Carlo Method |
| title_sort |
evolution of contagion by covid-19 in el salvador applying sir-dynamic simulations with the monte carlo method |
| publisher |
Universidad de El Salvador |
| publishDate |
2020 |
| url |
http://covid19.csuca.org/4/ |
| _version_ |
1796078073041387520 |
| score |
12.040679 |