Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be ext...

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Autores Principales: Ruge, Michael H., Kessler, Howard, Singh, Ajit, Hejazi, Shahram
Formato: Artículo
Idioma: Español
Publicado: 2015
Acceso en línea: http://revistas.ucr.ac.cr/index.php/matematica/article/view/153
http://hdl.handle.net/10669/12787
Sumario: The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models.While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model), the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS) supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis.Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.