| Sumario: |
This article studies the epidemiological dynamics of COVID-19 in El Salvador, using
deterministic models such as SIR, which is based on the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered
scheme, with constant transmission and recovery rates, and introducing the parameter
of the global mortality rate. The simulations of the SIR model were modified in order to
consider the intervention in the social dynamics of the population, through measures
such as social distancing, appropriate hygiene, and mandatory quarantine at the country
level. These measures have been managed in order to mitigate the evolution of the
pandemic in the country. The 4,600 people held in Containment Centers had been
assigned as the base population for simulations, because by April 5, 90% of the cases
were confirmed among this group. The overall mortality rate has been assumed to be
3.5%, according to general international reports. The results were classified by
scenarios: optimistic, semi-critical and critical with peaks of infection between 4% and
7.4% of the total population considered. It was established that 15% of the confirmed
cases reach critical condition, while 3.5% of the total infected cases might die. The
simulations are carried out since April 5, but assuming March 18 as the zero day, which
corresponds to the first positive case identified in El Salvador.
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